Total industrial production rose 0.4% in August for its fourth consecutive monthly increase. However, the August index is still 7.3% below pre-pandemic February levels. Manufacturing output rose 1.0% but the gains for most manufacturing industries have gradually slowed since June. Mining production fell 2.5% in August, and capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.3 percentage points in August to 71.4%
New orders for manufactured durable goods in August increased $1.0 billion or 0.4% to $232.8 billion from July to August. The news marks four consecutive months of increase, following a 11.7% increase in July. Shipments, down three consecutive months, declined $0.7 billion or 0.3% to $244.1 billion. Unfilled orders fell $6.3 billion or 0.6% to $1,078.4 billion. Inventories decreased $0.5 billion or 0.1% to $420.5 billion.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell 0.6 percentage points (ppts) to 54.4% from August to September. A value above 50% signifies expansion in the manufacturing industry. Among the six biggest manufacturing industries, food, beverage & tobacco remain the biggest-performing sector, with fabricated metal products and chemical products growing strongly. A respondent from the fabricated metal products industry said overall business conditions are improving but not at the rates at which they declined.
The Consumer Confidence Index increased to 101.8 in September, up from 86.3 in August. Consumers who claimed business conditions are “good” increased from 16.0% to 18.3%, while those who claimed business conditions are “bad” decreased from 43.3% to 37.4%. Consumers were more optimistic about their short-term income prospects. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased from 29.8% to 37.1%, while those expecting business conditions to worsen decreased from 20.7% to 15.8%.
The seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2% in September after rising 0.4% in August. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4% before seasonal adjustment. The index for used cars and trucks continued to rise sharply and accounted for most of the monthly increase in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The energy index rose 0.8% in September as the index for natural gas increased 4.2%. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2% in September after larger increases in July and August.
Per the advanced estimate, Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 31.4% in the second quarter of 2020. The number reflected a decrease in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by an increase in federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
The preliminary chemical and allied products Producer Price Index increased from 277.7 in August 2020 to 281.1 in April.
